Commentary: The Beginning of the End for Vana'diel?
With the conclusion of VanaFest 2010, an event held in Tokyo to celebrate eight years of Final Fantasy XI, the future of the multi-platform MMORPG pioneer has become much clearer. Since the announcement of Final Fantasy XIV, players have been speculating about the fate of Vana’diel. Details about updates to the fourth expansion pack and a new add-on solidify Final Fantasy XI’s future, at least for another year.
But underneath all of the amazing announcements are clear signs that the cracks are showing in what had been a flagship of MMOs, with its multilingual, cross-platform community. Could the “Abyssea” add-on be the game’s final swan song? Or is it possible for Vana’diel and Eorzea to co-exist, at least for the next few years?
Level cap increase
Historically, the level cap for Final Fantasy XI has been 75. (In its early stages, the level cap was lower, and then steadily raised.) Starting in June 2010, the level cap will be raised in three stages to 99. How the new cap will be phased in is yet to be seen, as is the future of the merit point system, which was implemented to satisfy players who had reached the level 75 cap.
While the level cap increase is good for bringing back inactive players, it seems likely that this is the last level cap increase for the game. A cap of 99 implies a hard limit, a decision made by the development team from the very beginning. This won’t be what announces an end to the game, but it clearly limits its future.
World integration
As a long-time player, I’ve always been loyal to Siren server. Along the way I’ve seen several world expansions, as Square Enix was forced to add new worlds to handle the influx of new players. While there haven’t been concrete numbers in recent years on the population of Final Fantasy XI, many players would agree that the numbers have dropped off. In its heyday, a world could be bustling with three or four thousand players on a busy evening, and usually didn’t drop below 1500 except on a mid-week afternoon in the United States.
Eight pairs of worlds are now being merged as part of the March version update, a clear sign that the user base has dropped off since the game’s release for Xbox 360, the last time new worlds were added. Consolidation is a bad sign in the world of MMOs – it either means the company is trying to cut costs, losing players, or both – and no matter what the underlying reason is, it should be disconcerting to current players.
Add-ons and expansions
The introduction of “add-on” content had some in the FFXI community wondering if the game was approaching its end. Full expansions generate lots of buzz and bring back players for at least a few months; the concept of smaller “add-on” chapters seemed like something that would have less appeal. At VanaFest 2010, Square Enix announced the three-part “Abyssea” add-on, to be released in June 2010, September 2010, and December 2010.
What comes beyond the completion of “Abyssea” is to be seen, but the release of the final part (in December 2010) would mark three years since the last expansion pack. To Square Enix’s credit, they’ve been working on the add-ons, and some of the designers and writers were transferred to the Final Fantasy XIV development team. But the lack of “major” content – so far, new jobs and new swaths of land have only been introduced through full expansions – implies that FFXI has seen the end of major changes.
Square Enix account management system
The FFXIV beta has made use of Square Enix accounts, instead of PlayOnline accounts. Interviews have also revealed that the new MMO will not make use of POL, which in the North America market has served as nothing more than a portal for FFXI. (In Japan, PlayOnline was also used for other MMOs and games.) There will be some mechanism for FFXI players to bring their new character names over to FFXIV, although that will remain to be seen. However, with each game on its own portal, it’s just one more reason for Square Enix to pull the plug on Final Fantasy XI once the subscriber base falls below a certain threshold.
The good news for FFXI
After a few depressing sections, it’s time to consider the good news for Final Fantasy XI. The current roadmap for content should guarantee that Vana’diel will be with us at least for another year. The last level cap increase, tentatively planned for the December 2010 version update, will likely require a month or so for even the most dedicated players to reach. (Note that, at level 75, it takes 44,000 experience points to “max out,” and average exp/hour is only in the thousands.) Square Enix is unlikely to pull the plug so quickly after the last add-on release, so FFXI should make it through at least summer 2011. I feel confident through summer 2012, at which point the declining subscriber base will force Square Enix to focus exclusively on FFXIV.
It’s also possible that Square Enix could try to keep players in Vana’diel after the release of FFXIV by bundling subscriptions for both games. While there’s no official word that this is in the works, it would make sense if it succeeds – rather than lose a FFXI player entirely, they keep some revenue, and there’s still only 28-31 days in the month.
Of course, the wild card is FFXIV – without a firm release date, it’s hard to say when players will flock to Eorzea.
No matter what happens, FFXI will be around for a while, and although the end will be bittersweet, it will have been an amazing decade exploring Vana’diel.
